Fig. 3

Projections of climatically favorable niche space across elevation under current climate, and the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Under a warmer and drier climate, Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, and subalpine fir are projected to experience upslope movement of their favorable niche space, and niche space for these species is projected to shrink substantially by 2090 as even higher elevations become less suitable. Ponderosa pine, a dominant forest species at lower elevations, is projected to experience expansion of favorable climate niche space. To determine the area of climatically favorable niche space for a species, we used the probability of occurrence values generated by the NPMR climate niche models, averaged across each forested ecoregion used in LANDIS-II. These ecoregion values served as species establishment probability (SEP) inputs for the forest landscape simulation model, LANDIS-II