Fig. 5

Modeled contemporary and future species occupancy relative to climatically favorable locations. Year 2000 distributions reflect the landscape after 600 simulated years of contemporary climate and the historical fire regime. Year 2060 and 2090 distributions illustrate a geographic disequilibrium under the A2 climate scenario for both a continuation of the historical fire regime and a future (higher frequency) fire regime. Under the A2 scenario, persistence in climatically unfavorable locations is substantial for Douglas-fir, subalpine fir, and lodgepole pine, although increased fire frequency reduces this persistence. In contrast, ponderosa pine loses little of its favorable habitat and benefits from fire in areas that remain favorable. Species occupancy is defined as the presence of at least one age cohort in a 1-ha grid cell, and climatic favorability is defined as a location where climatically-defined species establishment probabilities (SEP) exceed 0.2