Fig. 6

Relative climatic favorability of occupied sites for tree species over 90 years of A2 climate change under suppressed, historical, and future fire regimes. Year 2000 conditions reflect 600 simulated years of contemporary climate and the historical fire regime. As trees persist in locations increasingly unfavorable for establishment, average favorability of occupied sites declines. Only for Douglas-fir and subalpine fir does a shorter fire rotation temporally reveal this tension, especially at year 2060, by killing trees in newly unsuitable locations and increasing overall favorability values. Site favorability is defined as the species establishment probability (SEP) derived from the climate niche models. Dots represent median value, error bars are the 20th and 80th percentiles, blue lines reference 20th and 80th percentiles at year 2000