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Table 5 Risk analysis—summary

From: Explaining farmers’ reluctance to adopt recommendations for sustainable ecosystem management

Village Current practice Proposed change Anticipated risk associated with proposed change
Karchick Crop choice in order of land allocation
 1. Cotton (main cash crop)
 2. Wheat (for subsistence)
 3. Alfalfa (mainly for livestock upkeep)
Irrigation method: flood irrigation
Sprinkle-irrigated alfalfa Production—Alfalfa requires more water, there is uncertainty on water availability and reduction/no production of wheat and cotton which are essential to support household flour demand and generate income respectively
Marketing—Livestock only contributes to about 15% of household income in the area so alfalfa has very low demand in local markets fetching low price, and wheat and flour are very expensive to buy; therefore, without own production, households’ food security will be jeopardized
Finance—The cost of production will be higher with introduction of new irrigation systems potentially reducing their profit margin, with risks associated with their ability to afford the initial investment cost of sprinkle irrigation as well as upkeep
Institutional—There is uncertainty on future regulations on water sharing along the canal and the availability of subsidies or credit to enable adoption
Star Ikan Crop choice in order of land allocation
 1. Cotton (main cash crop)
 2. Wheat (for subsistence)
 3. Alfalfa (for livestock upkeep)
Irrigation method: flood irrigation
Sprinkle-irrigated alfalfa and drip-irrigated cotton Production—Alfalfa requires more water, there is uncertainty on water availability and reduction/no production of wheat which is essential to support household flour demand
Marketing—Alfalfa has very low demand in local markets fetching low price; wheat and flour are very expensive to buy and will increase households financial burden
Finance—The cost of production will be higher with the introduction of two new irrigation systems potentially reducing their profit margin, with risks associated with their ability to afford the initial costs of investment and upkeep of both sprinkle and drip irrigation systems
Institutional—There is uncertainty on future regulations on water sharing along the canal and the availability of subsidies or credit to facilitate adoption
Bugun Crop choice in order of land allocation
 1. Alfalfa (main cash crop)
 2. Cotton
 3. Corn
Irrigation method: flood irrigation
Drip-irrigated cotton and orchards Production—Alfalfa is the main cash crop produced under contractual farming; the production cost of orchards including harvesting, processing, preserving, and packaging is considered cumbersome; and drip irrigation will enhance their current challenge of farming with saline water
Marketing—The price of cotton is linked with the international market and highly volatile and hence not worth the risk to forego a secured market in alfalfa; and marketing of fruits is not well known
Finance—The cost of production and maintenance of orchards is considered expensive
Institution—Orchards are not included in government subsidy