Spatially explicit statistical modeling of random and systematic land cover transitions in the main grassland plain of Nech Sar National Park, Ethiopia

Ecological Processes

Table 5 List of driving forces for systematic land cover transitions in the NSNP

Variables	Abbreviations	Units	Proxy for
Topography variables
Elevation	ELEV	m	Mean annual temperature (°C)
Slope	SLP	Degrees	Diffuse solar radiation
Sine of aspect	SIN_ASP	− 1 to 1	Eastness
Cosine of aspect	COS_ASP	− 1 to 1	Northness
Distance variables
Proximity to forest edge	DIS_WREDG86	m	Likelihood for forest loss
Proximity to roads/trails	DIS_RTRA	m	Likelihood for forage use and constructions
Proximity to drainage networks	DIS_DRA	m	Accessibility
Other driving forces			Causes
Successive government policies			Population pressure due to population growth, villagization programs, resettlements (formal/informal).
Local climate incidence (drought)			Erratic rainfall (November–June)
Education			Lack of awareness on environmental management and related issues.
Political unrest			Landholding crisis (e.g., Gedeo, Segen, Borena, Guji I and II).
Livelihood of the population			Movable pastoralism and agro-pastoralism.
Geo-politics			Frequent clan conflicts on park border demarcation.