Potential influence of wildfire in modulating climate-induced forest redistribution in a central Rocky Mountain landscape

Ecological Processes

Table 4 Climate niche models developed for each tree species and two shrub community types

Species	Model predictors^a (tolerance)	LogB	AUC	Model presence (n)	Validation presence (n)
Grand fir	MTCM (1.35) LogMAP (0.04) logGSP (0.08)	510.2	0.93	971	930
Subalpine fir	DD5 (134.25) LogMAP (0.09) PRATIO (0.07)	424.0	0.89	1224	1220
Engelmann spruce	SDI (0.03) DD5 (268.50) LogMAP (0.04)	238.6	0.86	779	772
Whitebark pine	MTWM (0.86) MTCM (0.68)	227.1	0.93	348	351
Limber pine	MTWM (1.72) MTCM (0.68) PRATIO (0.05)	63.6	0.93	78	69
Lodgepole pine	SDI (0.03) MTCM (2.03) LogMAP (0.04)	247.1	0.81	1142	1149
Ponderosa pine	MTWM (1.72) MMINDD0 (375.70)	247.7	0.89	584	552
Ponderosa pine	LogMAP (0.04)
Aspen	MTWM (1.72) MTCM (1.35) LogMAP (0.04)	122.5	0.87	309	293
Douglas-fir	ADI (0.01) MTWM (0.86) MTCM (1.35)	327.1	0.82	2268	2218
Mountain shrub	MTWM (1.72) MMINDD0 (375.70)	11.9	0.66	101	93
Mountain shrub	PRATIO (0.05) logGSP (0.12)
Semi-arid shrub-grass	ADI (0.01) SDI (0.03) MTCM (0.68)	271.5	0.81	1420	1185

^aRefer to Table 1 for predictor abbreviation descriptions. Tolerance = parameter indicating the breadth of the surrounding sample space required to make an estimate for a given point in the model (specifically, the standard deviation of the Gaussian weighting function for each predictor, given in original units for each predictor). LogB = log10 (likelihood ratio), indicating improvement of a new model over the naïve model (i.e., where the probability of encountering the species is the average frequency of occurrence of the species). LogB values vary with number of presence points; thus, is not a good comparison metric among species models. AUC = area under receiver operating characteristic (calculated for validation on the new sites). Model presence = number of presence points for the model (out of 4445). Validation presence = number of presence points in the validation dataset (out of 4443)